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17-18 season forecast

jawjacker fishing
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17-18 season forecast
What are your predictions/reports about your local ice?
NOAA throws La Nina into the mix but the cooler temps are pretty limited to the great lakes area and northern rockies.
Farmers almanac throws the solar factors into theirs saying its likely to be cooler.
I'm experiencing erratic weather, warmer and windier than it should be, it seems, more precipitation too. Both maps make me feel very uncertain but I'm optimistic about a decent season. Guessing around the new year my spots could be good to go but I fear unpredictable weather could make it or break it. Heard a few high altitude spots are being fished near by at least.

https://www.almanac.com/...r-forecast-2017-2018
https://www.climate.gov/...-2018-winter-outlook
(This post was edited by willami on Nov 22, 2017, 12:41 AM)
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
Welcome to the site Will, have you ever fished lake Boyd, a little North of you?
The forecast I have read call for a wetter than normal Winter but also warmer than normal. Hard to believe we won't see ice sooner or later, just not sure how long it will last, if those predictions are true.
https://www.npr.org/...ajority-of-u-s?sc=tw


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(This post was edited by wiperhunter2 on Nov 22, 2017, 6:10 PM)
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Re: [wiperhunter2] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
Thank You.
Definitely fished boyd once or twice. Not much during summer, mostly spring and winter.
I did go yesterday and wanted to today but ended up somewhere else due to blocked roads. Trying to squeeze a couple fish out there while we're in this "Native American" summer.
Like you said it could be a short window , got to get it while the getting is safe.
Hope to see you out there sometime!
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
 
Here are addresses to analyses of the last two Novembers snow cover.
Nosnowber about sums up the last two years.


https://weather.com/...-early-november-2016
(last Nov. snowfall)

https://weather.com/...vember-us-snow-cover
(This November)

It isn't really directly linked to ice but as we all know snow and ice can be friends or enemies from one day to the next.
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
Checking out some more forecasts and I'm getting a feel for how the local ice season could go and a rough idea for the national outlook. I'm guessing January 10th will be the earliest safe ice on ponds, add a week for small lakes and two for big lakes. (just for me)
Warmer for just about everybody including alaska and cold for some of the northeast.
The sustained cold we need isn't in the predictions but reality isn't predictable. We might not have ice everywhere but unfreezing the winter economy might not be so bad for the fiscal year.
Paying to ride in a pickup bed to the high country doesn't sound bad either..
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
We got a report of a lake that's up in the mountains, about an hour away, having ice. Going to give it a try in the morning and hope we can get to it. Got some snow over the weekend and I'm not sure if we can even get to it now but we will give it a try. After the snow it started getting cold here, with day time temps only getting into the 30's, for at least the next week or more and that's in the valley, up in the mountains, it is likely staying below freezing. Our elevation here in the Valley is around 4,400 ft, what is the elevation where you are?


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Re: [wiperhunter2] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
About 5000 feet plus/minus.
Actually got onto ice today! About a 1/2 inch, didn't fish but I sighted a few dozen chubs in the shallow water ( 1/2-1 inch depth ) . Didn't dare set my trap because I could have went through up to 1 &1/2 feet of water.
Happy just to see skim ice cover on tiny ponds and the ditches are taking in the shade. The wind and warm forecast might erase that soon.

Hope you get some action! I'm planning to fish to the high country once or twice. The north I-25 corridor is expected to warm up again but I have no idea about the mountains.
(This post was edited by willami on Dec 6, 2017, 3:33 PM)
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
Not sure what the elevation was where we fished today but I'm sure it was at least 7,500ft, the ice was around a foot thick and it was 2 degrees when we arrived. Glad you found some ice, too bad it wasn't a bit thicker.


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Re: [wiperhunter2] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
Sounds good to me, hope there was some water and fish below the ice.
I actually ice fished for the first time today, broke through a few times but I caught about 30 fish. Loosely speaking but I'm counting it as my early season.
Open water fishing was better than expected but the fish were biting strangely.
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
LOL, yea, it was plenty deep, I'll attach a couple of pics of the fish we iced.


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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
""LOL, yea, it was plenty deep, I'll attach a couple of pics of the fish we iced." Nice looking fish! Thought I wrote that already but probably messed it up or put it somewhere random"
The new list of names has been formed for 2017-18 winter storms.
Looks like a list of employees and patrons of a dallas strip club to me. Maybe we can petition to stop the weather channel from controlling it , then they can focus on accurate forecasting for once.
At least something more scientific or sensible and not made for TV , soon it'll be just another advertising tool ( winter storm goodwrench kills 20 ).
Anyway it doesn't really do any good for the reputation of those names but it does give you something to curse while you shovel snow.
I'm guessing the next to hit me will be g or h, on the 22nd, 3-6 inches.
image/jpeg winsto.jpg (14.2 KB)
(This post was edited by willami on Dec 15, 2017, 6:12 AM)
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
Looks like we will finally get winter conditions here in western Colorado later this week. Fished up on the Grand Mesa on Friday, hit 3 different lakes and at 10,000 ft there is still 0-2 inches of snow depending on sun exposure, virtually no snowpack. All good though, the dirt roads were still clear of snow and we were able to drive to lakes in December that I thought I would never be able to ice fish.

That being said, with the warm fall, I am guessing it won't be a good ice year in our area.



Full time father and fisherman, part time dentist.
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Re: [Duckbutter] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
Nice, expect for the snow pack. Haven't checked but hopefully the mountains are getting more.
The season has been challenging so far, like hannibal's elephants ; not good for anyone in particular and generally dreadful. Still, you can't help but focus on them.
(This post was edited by willami on Jan 10, 2018, 9:28 PM)
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
The ice season is into its latter days around me. If in a video game I passed level 3 with a low score, one quarter and two dimes left ;can't remember much about level 4 but I didn't get half way to the boss.
If I compared all my seasons to military history I could have started my first months in the alps around 1915, advancing onto the thin ice of Ladogoa to enter thinner ice on Changjin. Then possibly, on a sort of never ending cold lake without bearings.
Detesting any conflicts that advance through the computer age resets my thinking into foggy times where bears and mammoths were known as competition/ large game but the enemy was a sister species without advantages.
The trouble is the loosing side is the default setting when you go too far back into centuries full of untold conflicts, with a definite ending.
(This post was edited by willami on Jan 12, 2018, 7:31 PM)
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
What does Bill Cosby, Bill Clinton and Yakov Smirnoff have in common with my Ice Fishing season?
They're not "ha, ha" funny. Thats not a joke or it'd be in that section.
(This post was edited by willami on Jan 26, 2018, 9:49 PM)
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
Number 18 should be considered late season for sure now. With luck my specific ice should be bolstered and preserved enough to withstand a few warm periods and stay rot free due to snow cover and mild weather. Getting slow and low but the rewards get greater when the going gets tough ;
fishing for me is like surrealism on quaaludes mixed with sadism.

Tips for the rest of the season:

-Focus on the little things.
-Don't forget your sunglasses
-Agree to disagree
-Don't walk on rotted and or candled ice.
-Do NOT show russian leaders your jewelry
-If you think you will or will not succeed, you're wrong.
(This post was edited by willami on Feb 2, 2018, 3:59 PM)
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
Didn't know weather could go from a calm 48 degrees at 1 AM to rain, fog, rain, sleet and snow with a hard east wind tapering down to 24 degrees. Maybe in terms of possibility but not when the forecast looks nearly calm with slowly degrading temperatures..
Darn you La Nina and or weather.com
Its like the saying 'everybody complains about the weather channel but no one does anything to them'.

If I leaned anything about night fishing this morning its never try anything.
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
If anything was gained from this season it was the adoption or adaptation of two new terms in my ice fishing lingo.
I've been humpin' it every trip, meaning I carry my stuff like a camel, unlike the sled dogs.
The pros and cons are easy enough to imagine for both methods but I need light sled design that can be broken down and carried easily, to become a Leg Humpin' Sled Dog..
(This post was edited by willami on Feb 13, 2018, 3:59 AM)
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
My season is over, worst of times, the lest of times.
Submit and humiliate ; can't best them and won't join them.

Last trip was just, in the sense of humility alone ; learned and ignored, won but failed to the point of acceptable- fatalistic, demise.
Decimated then obliterated, more reborn than water boarded; baptized by the ignorant and ignored by cause and effect.


Long story short, be careful out there. Lost on ice but won on shore.
(This post was edited by willami on Feb 16, 2018, 5:31 PM)
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Re: [willami] 17-18 season forecast In reply to
Mini Ice Age Shlog : Part One, Purgatorial Humility.

With ironic cruelty, the winter has dealt a couple late low blows; suspending local fishing and rebounding with equal but opposite energy.
Any ice fishing will likely be fruitless, painful and dangerous in the low lands. Fishing in spite of the conditions is still possible and curiosity is a good enough reason to try. But when you check the ice and repulse away in fear its best to ignore these useless instincts and turn down your common senses, just enough.
A score of 1-100, 100 being impossibly perfect fishing and 1 being unimaginably tough- I might of gave this location a 8 or less at the beginning of the season, at least in terms of experiences there. Without expectations of larger bodies freezing its a good opportunity to scout out the fish for next season. After our flood in 2013 certain areas have been completely changed in and around my river. Fishing hasn't recovered in this spot or the topography changed somehow resulting in unpredictable fishing and loss of fish. After about 10 trips of not catching a targeted species its easy enough to jump to conclusions like ' I'm wasting my time' or ' I'm an idiot for doing this' but thats just that useless logic and instinct kicking in.

Part Two : A old hope.
Took a chance on bigger water and the ice was better than expected. Remnants of the breakup were visible and there were some spots of thin ice and black holes from the snow. Extremely unlevel ice, one hole flooded out a low spot. Got a wet foot from a thick slush area that didn't make things easier, a big slushy area that looked like it could be an open crack sat right where I wanted to fish. Going to try from around 2pm to sunset this afternoon then maybe check out another lake.

Stay safe or don't go out on anything that refroze like this, a lot of the ice is bubbly and white so it could be unpredictable and weak in warm weather.

Part Three : Over The Top Or Topple Over.

The ice was good yesterday and the weather was OK, great if you like blowing snow. Checked the semi firm slush area and found about 3 inches of a half-froze shell on top of about a inch of water. Ice thickness under the shell tapered down from about 3'' to 1''. Would of been a bad idea to check the day before since the thin area would be peppered with large fishing holes that were covered with slush, just stepping near could of been enough to break through.

Toughest day yet, from about 1:30-4 PM had about five bites and two fish. Most aggressive bite still barely got hooked, didn't even get inside the mouth, the hook was on the outside of the lip somehow. Pretty much the same story with a trout, missed the bobber going down and it ran with the bait long enough that it should have swallowed the hook but it was just inside the top lip like it was being jigged. Fishing there is sounding like an offer that's easy to refuse but it would be nice to get something good to close the season, still haven't got anything big but I know I lost one or two.

Part 4 : A tale of two fishing trips.
With better weather but worse line I'm all but calling it a season. A few lessons from the last trips were re-learned and need to be noted just to secure them in my memory.
One is to stop trying to set hooks with ultra lite rods, don't touch it if you can hand line the fish, just get better at that and bring something to protect the index finger.
Two, don't drop things down the hole because its annoying.
Three is to not work yourself into a rut, exploring a little can pay off and it might help take some pressure away from good areas.
First day I hooked all three bites with a decent fish, second day caught a few and got what was probably my best fish there, still just under my goal but a good fight, felt like the fish had the upper hand.
Another trip is sounding difficult and line is getting short and spliced, it was 100% of my tackle expense this year (under $2 and not worth it). One break off this season, reminded me of my fourth lesson/rule that I followed, retie after one big bass or two mediums/ three small, why not. Last,don't underestimate or hurry a fish.

Part 5 : The Hot Tub

Had a tough trip, or 5 mini trips, didn't fully prepare and forgot a couple key things. Starting out sick and lazy doesn't help and over doing things without eating isn't as good of an idea in hindsight. The clouds and wind were the brick wall at the end of the day. Walked on river,pond and lake ice.
Feeling beaten up and something like my core temperature never recovered, maybe a little frostbit.
Need to start focusing on not abusing the hands and knees. Also, this time of year the temperature fluctuates from extreme highs and lows with unpredictable/variable weather. Going with light clothing made hard trips harder this year. Emergency hand warmers should be carried.



New Season Tally :
1 3'' Bluegill
? rainbow
11 black bass
(This post was edited by willami on Mar 1, 2018, 6:21 AM)